First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in Iowa This Week

This diary is mainly FYI for those keeping score of what's happening in the advertising wars.

Well, the Associated Press has a new story out that says that the group Democratic Courage will air a negative ad against Hillary Clinton starting this week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071204/ap_o n_el_pr/anti_clinton_ad_4;_ylt=AqYiIxo.n cDT3NCBuQdRFNGTbuRF

[more after the jump]

This political action committee Democratic Courage announced a few months (?) ago that they were going to run negative ads against HRC. Here's the website for this group:
http://www.dcourage.com/

The AP article states that Democratic Courage's ad buy will be very limited and that they will only air commercials on cable stations rather than the networks. I wonder if this PAC group will micro-target these ads to certain cable stations. I remember reading that Bush micro-targeted his cable ad buys to certain cable stations that catered to Nascar dads. Will this group use a scatter-shot or micro-targeting approach for their ad buys?

Here's a link to an interesting article titled "Buy Cable Smart:"

http://www.newpolitics.net/node/157?full _report=1

The author of this article presents a few things that groups should think about before buying a cable ad:

--
Before a cable buy is crafted, advertisers must be able to define a target audience as narrowly as possible: where do they live? What do they watch on television? What are their demographics?

There are one hundred cable stations that air advertising, many of which draw very specific, targeted audiences. With the tools of good market research, such as polling and through the market research firm Scarborough (available to all media buyers, but expensive), a media buyer can very effectively target advertising to a specific audience. But the first, most basic step is to know your audience.

It's worth noting that cable and the other new tools of politics mandate higher levels of market research and microtargeting. We now have the technology and tools to target video persuasion - better known as television ads - to narrow slices of the electorate, and soon we will be able to target individual households and voters. However, none of that will be useful unless we have sophisticated research tools and targeting capabilities. Conservatives are ahead on this front, having used research and microtargeting for mail and field campaigns for several cycles. In fact, Mitt Romney's presidential campaign is already using microtargeting research and running advertising on cable and broadcast aimed specifically at Republican primary voters in the early states, and also running national cable ads aimed at Republican fundraisers, activists, and party leaders<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[ii]<!--[endi f]-->. It's a highly sophisticated marketing campaign that puts new tools to use. Progressives need to catch up.
--

Read the rest of the article to learn more about cable buys.

Anyway, just thought that it would be important to let people know that negative advertising will begin very soon in Iowa....



Display:


I think HRC will have the most negative ads (none / 0)

of any candidate on both sides of the aisle by the time this primary is finished, given that Republicans are running negative ads against her as well....


by ademption on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:04:36 PM EST

Re: I think HRC will have the most negative ads (none / 0)

According to the DMR poll, I think the numbers were...

Clinton ~22%
Obama  9%
Edwards 7-8%

Negative rating among Democrats.  Now, is that a baseline from all that she's done?  Or is it from the ads?  

Also, I wonder how direct and negative these negative ads will be.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HRC's negative rating was about 30 percent (none / 0)

among Democrats in the DMR poll, actually.


See if Saxby Chambliss is helping you.
by desmoinesdem on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think HRC will have the most negative ads (none / 0)

it is from the media and her opponents attacking her for two months.  


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 08:55:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic R (none / 0)

I'm carefully waiting to see how effective this is.

likely they are buying cable to try to get free media discussion of their ads (they hope).

hopefully they'll use either humor or ridicule cause that would be most effective


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:20:34 PM EST

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic (none / 0)

The guy who runs this group is an Edwards supporter.

They will run negatives ads against both Obama and Hillary.


by Prodigy on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:20:42 PM EST

The AP article stated (none / 0)

that if the group can raise enough money it will air even more ads and they would consider airing ads against another candidate. Not sure who that candidate is. I know that Obama supporters don't like HRC that much, but if what you say is true that this group is an Edward' front, then it wouldn't be wise to contribute to this group b/c they could turn around and use the contributions to run ads against your guy....


by ademption on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The AP article stated (none / 0)

yeah , this is why i warned non-edwards supporters to not even think about donating to this group because they could use the money and attack your candidate.

This group is clearly a pro-Edwards group.


by Prodigy on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It doesn't surprise me at all that the first (none / 0)

negative adds are being put out by Edwards.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 10:26:01 PM EST

Re: It doesn't surprise me at all that the first (none / 0)

Which ad is Edwards releasing that you consider  negative?


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It doesn't surprise me at all that the first (none / 0)

I am not going to play rhetorical games with you.  Go bother someone who thinks you have a point about something or anything at all.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 09:02:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It doesn't surprise me at all that the first (none / 0)

You respond to my post, then tell me to go bother someone else.

Ben Smith at the Politico write:

A couple of notes: The group's founders like Edwards, and have contributed modest sums to him, but there's no evidence the group is linked to his campaign.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1 207/Democratic_Courage_PAC_Blowing_in_th e_Wind.html

But don't let the facts get in the way of your partisan rant.  If you want to pretend that Edwards is in control of this group, maybe you can join AreYouReady in lala land.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

Those intrade numbers have gone back in favor of clinton , I think the negative ad will help her or a wash.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 10:56:46 PM EST

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

for iowa


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 10:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

Because of two bogus polls.  Kind of sad.  Interesting to see how the people betting don't mind.  I noticed that at least on MSNBC the focus on polls was the DMR, none of the new ones.  I think those two had more of a affect than they deserved.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:00:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

Those two polls are not bogus , they may be older polls but they are not bogus.

However I put more faith in the dmr poll but I am wondering why those making bets now favor clinton , they had to know those were older polls and the dmr is probably the most respected in Iowa.

Maybe they are factoring in the organization and clinton's stepped up aggressiveness , she is balancing it well as of now , not going above board yet.

Who knows her aggressiveness can be effective because the issues she is bringing up are clear vulnerabilities for Obama and I have been wondering why she didn't point them out earlier.

From the lobbyist thing , to iran , healthcare , mudslinging etc stuff like that , because Obama has been putting up a different face from what has been happening behind the scenes ( not that I am criticizing him because it is clearly working for him , I have actually being impressed the way he has done it ).

But he could easily be called on it because he has held himself out as a differnt type of politician while playing old school type politics , only no one has called him out on it.

He actually spends more on polls than clinton , yet he criticizes her for poll driven politics , thats another one he can be called on.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

In regards to the AP Pew poll, polls usually take about 400-600 people in a span of four or so days.  I would accept a longer timespan if they upped the number of people they polled.  However, since they had issue-focused polling, they could not poll an adequate number of people to validate the numbers of their polling.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Negative Ad in Democratic Race to Air in (none / 0)

Well , if you are criticizing the poll based on valid structural issue ( I admit I am not a poll expert , in most cases I just wait for the DMR poll and take whatever it says whether good or bad ) thats fine , but some just want to dismiss them as bogus because it doesn't show their candidate in the lead .

You know what I have realized the ARG polls are actually better than most polls out there especially the Iowa ones , infact all the states they poll.

Their results are pretty close to the dmr and it seems the folks involved with the dmr actually help out with their polling and a lot of folks have been dismissing it.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:36:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, Lori (none / 0)

the thing is that the media, particularly cable news shows will give these ads lots of airing. So that's a bunch of negativity in contrast to the positive coverage that BO will receive this week with Oprah campaigning for him.

I would think that HRC would want to have a good news story this week to compete with the positive coverage BO will receive this week. I don't know. The onslaught against her has been relentless for the past 6 weeks or so and it's been having some effect. I just feel like we're in the middle of August 2004 in the Kerry campaign. Not good at all.

The one positive is that the Obama/Oprah media juggernaut will probably absorb most of the media's attention so that the negative ad won't get as much play in cable news as it might have if it started airing another week....


by ademption on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Lori (none / 0)

She'll probably roll out a few big name endorsers in that week , I trust the campaign for that lol


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 11:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Lori (none / 0)

Plus, she has Babs!!!!


"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama
by General Sherman on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Lori (none / 0)

who or what is babs ?

Sorry I didn't pick that up.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:02:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Lori (none / 0)

I'm going to guess Barbara Streisand.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:38:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, Lori (none / 0)

dam , sometimes i can be really slow.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:49:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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